Kroll data: growth beats margin, Rule of 40 dead above 25% EBITDA
## Growth Premium Widened, Margin Premium Disappeared Kroll's Summer 2026 Global Software Sector Update tracked M&A and public comps through June 30. The headline: software companies growing above 20% trade at 7.2x forward revenue. Companies growing 10% to 20% get 4.1x. Below 10% gets 3.1x. The growth cliff got steeper. The margin premium vanished. Companies with EBITDA margins above 25% trade at the same median multiple as companies running 10% to 25%. Kroll's data shows no valuation benefit for profitability above 25%. The market pays for growth. Full stop. ## Rule of 40 Explains None of the Category Spread Engineering software and HCM both run a 46% Rule of 40. Engineering trades at 5.2x. HCM trades at 3.0x. That is a 73% premium for identical growth plus margin. Collaboration software and vertical SaaS both hit 42%. Collaboration gets 3.1x. Vertical gets 3.7x. Marketing and cybersecurity both run 38%. Marketing gets 2.1x. Cyber gets 5.2x. Category matters more than your operating metrics. Two explanations fit: either buyers pay for revenue durability (EDA and CAD have 20-year switching costs), or they are pricing which categories AI agents make more valuable versus which ones agents replace. ERP and supply chain trade at 6.5x. Customer experience trades at 1.8x. The lowest multiples sit in categories where the underlying work is most automatable. ## Deal Volume High, Deal Value Low Annualised 2026 M&A volume is 2,672 transactions, second-highest on record. Announced deal value annualises to $240 billion, but one transaction accounts for half: SpaceX bought Cursor for $60 billion. Excluding that, annualised deal value is $120 billion, near a decade low. 2021 did $429 billion. More companies are getting acquired than almost any year on record. The aggregate price paid is near the bottom of the range. If your banker has meetings but no term sheets, this is why. ## What This Means for Sales Orgs If you are selling into software companies, know that buyers are not optimising for Rule of 40 anymore. They are paying for growth and category position. A 15% grower in the right category gets better multiples than a 25% grower in the wrong one. For sales professionals evaluating equity comp: check which category your company gets comped against. That matters more than several points of growth or margin. Salesforce paid 9.5x for Fin inside a category that trades at 1.8x, because Fin got positioned as AI agents, not customer service software. The comp set your CFO picks is worth more than the quota your CRO sets.