RBA data: Medium businesses most likely to be acquired
New Reserve Bank of Australia research has mapped which Australian businesses are most likely to get acquired. The data matters if you are selling into companies that might get bought, or working for one.
The numbers
Businesses turning over $10m to $50m annually are 1.4 times more likely to be acquired than sub-$1m firms. The $5m to $10m bracket is second most likely.
Worth noting: acquirers want medium-sized businesses that have proven they can scale, not early-stage startups.
What acquirers actually want
Counter-intuitive finding: acquirers prefer unproductive targets. The RBA economists theorise buyers want businesses that "benefit from reorganisation, which could include rationalising the workforce and gaining synergies."
Translation: they want to cut headcount and merge admin functions without losing the revenue stream.
Highly profitable but unproductive firms are prime targets. So are businesses holding patents.
Why this matters for sales
If you are prospecting into medium-sized businesses, acquisition risk is real. That champion you spent six months cultivating? They might report to a new CRO next quarter.
If you work for a company in the $10m-$50m bracket, your comp plan could change overnight. Post-acquisition territory redraws are standard. So is "optimising" the sales org.
The research uses previously unexplored RBA data at scale. It is the first comprehensive look at Australian acquisition patterns beyond anecdotal evidence.
The pattern
Acquirers are hunting for:
- Medium revenue ($10m-$50m)
- Proven at scale but operationally inefficient
- Patent holdings
- High profit margins despite low productivity
That productivity gap is the key. Buyers see arbitrage: keep the revenue, strip the cost.
For sales professionals, this is your early warning system. Know which segment your prospects sit in. Know which companies in your territory fit the acquisition profile. That changes how you forecast pipeline and qualify deals.
The full RBA paper is public. It is written by economists from the RBA, ACCC, and ANU. No commercial agenda, just data.